Really? This is considered reliable data?

So I'm surfing the latest news this morning.  I usually try to read all sides of the stories - so my first dragnet was simply Google - News.

The top entry was this one:

POLL SHOWS OBAMA WITH SMALL LEAD IN SWING STATES

Right under that was one from the Daily Beast:

POLL: 0 PERCENT OF BLACKS SUPPORT ROMNEY

That one sure got my attention, so off I go to read that article.  I mean, there surely has to be at least ONE black person who would vote for Romney...right?

I start reading the story and it's simply a blurb referring to the same poll as the leader article.  So I follow the link where it cites this particular poll.  That led me to another Daily Beast article posted last night.  It references the same poll again, but it has a link to the "NBS NEWS/Wall Street Journal Poll" that's being quoted in all these stories.

NBC/WSJ Poll: Heading into the conventions, Obama has a four-point lead

So that story rolls along and I read this part:

"Obama and Vice President Joe Biden gets support from 48 percent of the registered voters, and a Republican ticket of Romney and new running mate Paul Ryan gets 44 percent."

Last time I checked, 48+44=92.  So that leaves 8 percent undecided?  Voting for a third party candidate?  Not really giving a shit?  Hung up because America's Got Talent was coming on?

FINALLY!!! A link to the ACTUAL poll!!!

Go check that out - it might be interesting for you to note that this poll was done via the phone, including 300 cell phone only respondents.

1000 Registered voters were polled (I'm assuming they simply took the word of the people responding on the phone?  I mean how many probably hung up on them.  I wonder how long it took to actual get 1000 people to answer and then answer multiple questions  - much less make sure they were registered voters.)


All results are shown in percentages

The margin of error for this poll is + or - 3.1 percent.

So out of the 1000 people responding, the margin of error is 31 people?

Does that mean the answers could have been recorded wrong? The people conducting the poll made a mistake?  The caller couldn't understand the respondent?

What exactly does that mean?

So we start looking at the actual questions on the poll:


For statistical purposes only, would you please tell me how old you are?  (IF “REFUSED,” ASK:) Well, 
would you tell me which age group you belong to? (READ LIST.)+ 
18-24 .................................................................... 9
25-29 .................................................................... 7
30-34 .................................................................... 10
35-39 .................................................................... 8
40-44 .................................................................... 10
45-49 .................................................................... 7
50-54 .................................................................... 10
55-59 .................................................................... 11
60-64 .................................................................... 12
65-69 .................................................................... 5
70-74 .................................................................... 5
75 and over .......................................................... 6
  Not sure/refused ................................................ -
+ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters.

Fair enough - makes sense.


To ensure that we have a representative sample, would you please tell me whether you are from a Hispanic 
or Spanish-speaking background?+ 
Yes, Hispanic ...................................................  8
No, not Hispanic ..............................................  92
  Not sure/refused ............................................  -
+ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters



And again, for statistical purposes only, what is your race--white, black, Asian, or something else?+ 
White ..............................................................   74
Black ..............................................................   12
Asian ..............................................................   3
Other ..............................................................   4
  Hispanic (VOL) .............................................   4
  Not sure/refused ..........................................   3
+ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters.


Not sure / refused?  So that's 3 percent of 1000.  So 30 people either refused to give their race or they were not sure of their race? Mixed race? That makes sense right?

Honestly I know plenty of people that are black,white, Asian etc - even mixed race.  None of them have ever seemed confused about what race they are.

Maybe the people responding to the poll were simply offended?  Maybe they thought it didn't matter (and honestly except for the initial article title 'O PERCENT OF BLACKS BACK ROMNEY" it would't have mattered to me either.)


Q3 All in all, do you think things in the nation are generally headed in the right direction, or do you feel  things 
 are off on the wrong track? 


                                              8/12+  
Headed in the right direction ..... 32   
Off on the wrong track .............. 61  
  Mixed (VOL) ........................... 4  
  Not sure ................................ 3  



(This poll also shows prior responses by month- going back a year.)

32 percent - that's 320 people - really answered that they thought this country was headed in the right direction?????

Who the hell would take the time to actually take the poll and answer like this?  Really?

Remember these are supposedly REGISTERED VOTERS.

That's a scary number right there - 320 people - If you transpose these numbers onto the total numbers of total registered voters (remember a poll is a sampling) that would mean that 

The rough numbers I could find told me that there were 169 MILLION REGISTERED VOTERS (86 million Democrat, 55 Million Republican - 28 million "others")

So 32 percent of 169 MILLION = 54 MILLION

So 54 MILLION PEOPLE in this country think everything is hunky dory and chugging right along as it should??? REALLY?

Q4 In general, do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as president?



                               8/12
Approve .................   48  
Disapprove.............    49  
  Not sure ...............   3

So 49 percent DISAPPROVE of the job he's doing.  So 82 MILLION people disapprove of the job he's doing - but more than half of them think everything is okay?

WTF?

Q5 Do you generally approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing in handling the economy?

54 percent disapprove ( 91 MILLION)






Q6b In general, do you approve or disapprove of the job that Congress is doing?

82 percent disapprove ( 138 MILLION)

Honestly I'm shocked the number wasn't higher.  Maybe some family members of politicians were poll respondents?  Maybe those 12 percent who DID APPROVE (6 percent were NOT SURE-  again WTF?) were simply ready to get on with their day.


I’d like to ask you a question about the November 2012 presidential election… 
Q7 Please tell me how interested you are in November's elections, using a scale from one to ten, on which a 
"ten" means that you are very interested in November's elections and a "one" means that you are not at all 
interested.  You may choose any number from one to ten.  (IF "NOT SURE," RECORD AS "DK.") 

This ought to be interesting. Remember 10 is the most interested, 1 is not interested at all.

10 - 62% very interested  (104 million)
 9  - 6%   (10 million)
8   - 13% (21 million)
7  -  6%   ( 10 million)
6  -  3%   (5 million)
5  - 5%    (8 million )
4  - 1%   (1.6 million)
3  - 1%
2 -  1%
1 (NOT INTERESTED AT ALL) - 2% (3.2 million)

Wonder what the numbers would have been if the subject had been American Idol, Jersey Shore, Big Brother or Tom and Katie's divorce???


Most of the other questions are pretty standard.  Check it out. Until you get a bit further down:


Q24a Has what you have seen, read, or heard about Mitt Romney’s previous business experience managing a 
firm that specializes in buying, restructuring, and selling companies made you feel … more positive or more 
negative about him, not made much difference in your opinion or do you not know enough about this to have 
an opinion at this time? 

Okay- I can see this.  They gotta be asking questions about Obama too...right?  Wrong.

So what would you say the MAJORITY of people actually know about the things Romney actually did when he was in the business world ("buying, restructuring, and selling companies")???

Fair to say that most know only what they've seen on television ad (CAMPAIGN ADS) or blurbs they've read or seen on the news.


                                                8/12
More positive  ........................... 25 
More negative ..........................  28  
Not much difference .................   27 
Don’t know enough ..................   20 



Has what you have seen, read, or heard about Mitt Romney’s tax returns and the percent he has paid in 
federal income taxes made you feel … more positive or more negative about him, not made much difference 
in your opinion or do you not know enough about this to have an opinion at this time? 

WTF?  REALLY? Aren't polls supposed to be unbiased?  What the hell is this even doing here?  

Hey I'm not a big Romney fan - but really?  Like I said - nothing about the negative stuff being slung about Obama.  Just rating the overall job he's doing as POTUS.


                                                8/12
More positive  ........................... 6 
More negative .......................... 36 
Not much difference .................  41 
Don’t know enough ..................  17 

That's pretty telling right there.

36 percent........................

How the hell is this supposed to even really mean anything?

Makes you think - if this many "news sources" are already throwing this "hard data" out there and citing this poll, makes you wonder what other "data" or "polls" are useless bullshit.

I'm getting a headache - time for another cup of coffee.





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